Not good

[nicojohnson1234@gmail.com]

http://www.aspentimes.com/article/20...EKLY/107300039






What's Aspen got in common with Amarillo, Texas? Quite a bit, if global warming remains unchecked over the next century, according to a study commissioned by the city government.

In the latest step in its Canary Initiative - a program designed to understand and reduce Aspen's contribution to greenhouse gas production - scientists undertook what's billed as an unprecedented look at the potential effects of global warming on a community's climate.

The study, titled "Climate Change and Aspen: An Assessment of Potential Impacts and Responses," concluded that more precipitation will fall as rain rather than snow, higher temperatures will create drier conditions because the soil will absorb moisture more quickly, peak runoff will occur earlier, and minimum flows in streams will drop in summer and fall.

"These things are really going to change our valley," said John Katzenberger, director of the Aspen Global Change Institute and coordinator of the city's report.

Skiing, fishing and rafting - three linchpins of Aspen's recreation industry - will be increasingly threatened by rising temperatures and drier conditions as the century progresses. Simply supplying enough water for a growing population could be a challenge, the study said.


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These three images, from top to bottom, show Aspen Mountain 10 days after this year's April 16 closure, 20 days after and 30 days after. The rapid snowmelt surprised many Aspenites but it may be a harbinger of things to come. The city of Aspen's new study suggests that future ski seasons will shorten and future snowpack will be thinner.
Click to Enlarge

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Wildfires are expected to rage more intensely, and insects could proliferate in the national forest surrounding Aspen.

Climbing temperatures will force alpine vegetation and wildlife to higher elevations, where the climate will be more compatible. Some species are "likely to become locally extinct," the study said.

Sitting in the hot seat

If humankind does nothing about global warming, if the planet's population continues to grow at current rates, and industrialization continues to accelerate, Aspen's average annual temperature will increase by as much as 14 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100, the study said. That would produce a climate similar to Amarillo's today.

Even if global warming is slowed, Aspen's temperature will warm by 6 degrees by the end of the century, the study said. That would give it a climate more like Los Alamos, N.M.

The alarming image painted by the study isn't meant to make Aspenites surrender in despair, said Dan Richardson, the city's global warming project manager. Instead it's supposed to show them what's at stake and, combined with an earlier study, spur action to reduce Aspen's contribution to global warming. The earlier study, released in February, showed the major sources of Aspen's greenhouse gases.

"The first study asked what type of impact does Aspen have on global warming," said Richardson. "This [study] asks what impact does global warming have on Aspen."

To find out the latter, 12 to 14 experts in fields including environmental science, economics, biology and climatology were enlisted to help with the yearlong study, said Katzenberger. A 12-member science advisory panel offered guidance and review. Three global climate models that are almost universally accepted in the scientific community were used to determine the effects on Aspen; the models range from a low-emissions future with slower warming to a high-emissions scenario with more drastic effects.

The study reached four key conclusions:

• Aspen's climate has already changed noticeably in the last 25 years. "Temperatures have increased by about 3 degrees and the average number of frost-free days per year has increased about 20 days," the study said.

• Total precipitation decreased 6 percent over the last 25 years while snowfall is down 16 percent.

• Higher temperatures are inevitable even if the world's nations make progress on global warming. Aspen's temperature increases will range from 6 to 14 degrees by 2100, depending on how aggressive the response is to global warming.

• Most of Aspen's precipitation will fall as rain rather than snow. "Snowpack will decline, and peak runoff will occur earlier in the spring," the study said. "Summer and fall stream flows will be reduced, potentially declining below the minimum needed to protect aquatic species. The greater the temperature rise, the more extreme these effects will be."

Katzenberger said he was unaware of any other study that examined climate change and its impacts on a specific community.

Skiing follows silver mining?

The study gave 10 examples of ecological effects that will result from the climate change. By midcentury, for example, "the vegetation in Aspen is likely to look more like what we now see near Basalt," it said.

But the biggest change could shake Aspen's soul as a ski town. The study boldly forecasts that if nothing is done about global warming, skiing will become to Aspen what silver mining is - a thing of the past. "Continued growth in global greenhouse emissions is projected to end skiing in Aspen by 2100 and possibly well before then," said the study. "Reducing emissions could preserve skiing at middle and upper elevations.

"In general, the ski season is likely to start later and end earlier," the study continued. "Snow depths will be reduced. Spring melt will begin earlier. Higher temperatures will reduce snowmaking opportunities and increase competition for the needed water supplies."

Katzenberger said he hopes the study's revelations demonstrate to Aspenites just what's at stake over global warming and shakes people out of complacency.

"It's difficult to get your arms around a 100-year problem and do something about it," he said.

Richardson said the next step in the Canary Initiative is to propose specific steps to reduce Aspens' greenhouse gas emissions. He is working on a draft "action plan" that will propose several different ways to achieve reductions. The draft plan will go to the City Council to see what actions they are willing to take.

More information about the city's Canary Initiative, including the recent study results, can be found at www.agci.org.

[leroy jenkins]

Well fuck. It doesn't seem all that imminent after the incredible downpour of rain we had yesterday. That shit was crazy. Probably the hardest I've ever seen it rain for about three quarters of an hour, then it rained normally for hours after that. The whole time, I was just wondering why it never pukes like that during ski season.

[Trackhead]

More end of the world insight.

Fact of the matter is............

We will not change our ways as a species. We will continue to overbreed, over populate, and over utilize our resources until we evolve ourselves off the planet. It's not just our country, it's China, India, and the billions of other people entering the modern world that will continue to contribute to global warming.

It is clearly inevitable. Like death and taxes. Fuck it. Nothing will ever change for the better.

[Hutch]

If Aspen can reduce its greenhouse gas emissions, we're halfway there!

[byates1]

i can hope you are wrong trackhead, but i am in the same boat as you. it is a cold hard reality, but i look at it the same way. it's not pessimistic, just realistic.

still, i will not live a life of gross enviormental abuse, it's irrresponsible. i will not father children either, as a favor to them. what is you other tag line? "when in doubt, climb higher." we will be...

[Cirquerider]

I don't recall anytime when our imminent doom was not at hand. Prophecies of doom have been with us before biblical times. During my lifetime alone it has been forecast from such causes as nuclear weapons proliferation, WWIII, nuclear winter population explosion, famine, plague, Silent Spring (DDT), the death of our oceans, global deforestation, loss of the ozone layer, proclaiming Lake Erie is dead, our assured extinction from meteor impact, and of course the current favorite, global warming.

Take your choice. Chicken Little is alive, healty and screaming his fool head off.
And byates1, yours is not the first generation to consider the welfare of their progeny by not having children. Give me a break. How thankful would you be to have never been born.

[MTT]

I don't recall anytime when our imminent doom was not at hand. Prophecies of doom have been with us before biblical times. During my lifetime alone it has been forecast from such causes as nuclear weapons proliferation, WWIII, nuclear winter population explosion, famine, plague, Silent Spring (DDT), the death of our oceans, global deforestation, loss of the ozone layer, proclaiming Lake Erie is dead, our assured extinction from meteor impact, and of course the current favorite, global warming.

Take your choice. Chicken Little is alive, healty and screaming his fool head off.
And byates1, yours is not the first generation to consider the welfare of their progeny by not having children. Give me a break. How thankful would you be to have never been born.

I think I would worry more about Nuclear detonation within the US as much now as was the fear in the early 1960's.
I don't dwell on it but just one could render a very large portion of the Western US uninhabitable for a very long time.

On Greenhouse gas I think CA could do more to harm or improve the environment than just about any other Country in the world, with the exception of China.

[iceman]

I don't recall anytime when our imminent doom was not at hand. Prophecies of doom have been with us before biblical times. During my lifetime alone it has been forecast from such causes as nuclear weapons proliferation, WWIII, nuclear winter population explosion, famine, plague, Silent Spring (DDT), the death of our oceans, global deforestation, loss of the ozone layer, proclaiming Lake Erie is dead, our assured extinction from meteor impact, and of course the current favorite, global warming.

Take your choice. Chicken Little is alive, healty and screaming his fool head off.
And byates1, yours is not the first generation to consider the welfare of their progeny by not having children. Give me a break. How thankful would you be to have never been born.

Right on. I actually believe things are very slowly getting better, or preparing to do so, through lowered birth rates, environmental consciousness, medical advaqnces and education.

The population will peak and begin to decline in the not-too distant future and as long as we can keep the fascists and the religious nutjobs in check (clearly a tall order) the future looks bright from here. It's gonna take time, and work, and there will be lots of detours, dead ends and setbacks, but the pendulum is nearing its apex and will start to swing back.

You doom-mongers should read about Malthus.

[cj001f]

woah. 3 American optimists in a row.

[Trackhead]

You doom-mongers should read about Malthus.

My opinion or outlook is not that of doom. The world evolves, and a world without a human population is what it is. We haven't been here forever, nor will we be.

And in the relatively short human life span, not too much will change. I'm not speaking in the brief terms of the human life span.

[iceman]

Well eventually the sun will supernova and earth will de destroyed, but I don't base my personal philosophy on that fact.

[cj001f]

Well eventually the sun will supernova and earth will de destroyed, but I don't base my personal philosophy on that fact.

Good idea - the Rapture is coming soon.

[MassLiberal]

technically, the sun is too small to become a supernova,

But it will swell in size and swollow the earth.

[Tippster]

I base mine on the fact that sooner or later the Apes will take over. Damn dirty Apes.

[cj001f]

I base mine on the fact that sooner or later the Apes will take over. Damn dirty Apes.

If dolphins were monkeys.

[Tippster]

That's just crazy talk. Everyone knows that Apes are different from Dolphins, even if they are monkeys.

[MassLiberal]

You guys, are clueless. It is mice who truly rule the world.

[cj001f]

You guys, are clueless. It is mice who truly rule the world.

I'd like some tea.

[The Dad]

The whole time, I was just wondering why it never pukes like that during ski season.

Assuming that your question wasn't rhetorical, the reason is that the colder the air, the less moisture it can hold before becoming saturated.

[P_McPoser]

I think we should just use Urban Folk as fuel.

Think about it the issues it solves!
-Automotive Pollution
-Overcrowding
-Overuse of resources
-Ugly Urban Sprawl
-Poop covered CA beaches
-Consume Consume Consume lifestyles
-The word "Bling Bling."
-Non producers.

What a great world it would become!

[Trackhead]

I base mine on the fact that sooner or later the Apes will take over. Damn dirty Apes.

Uhhh, that has already happened. One needs only to look at the Whitehouse to figure that out.

[Tri-Ungulate]

I think we should just use Urban Folk as fuel.

Think about it the issues it solves!
-Automotive Pollution
-Overcrowding
-Overuse of resources
-Ugly Urban Sprawl
-Poop covered CA beaches
-Consume Consume Consume lifestyles
-The word "Bling Bling."
-Non producers.

What a great world it would become!

Gee, I thought you would have chosen them dirty garbage-strewin' illegal immigrants before you went after the inner city "Bling Bling"-ers.

[Hutch]

Uhhh, that has already happened. One needs only to look at the Whitehouse to figure that out.

[cj001f]

Gee, I thought you would have chosen them dirty garbage-strewin' illegal immigrants before you went after the inner city "Bling Bling"-ers.

The inner city "Bling Bling"-ers are the competitors for the welfare rural america needs to survive - they couldn't exist without the tax payments they suck away from the rest of the country.

[AstroPax]

if global warming remains unchecked over the next century

This global warming end-of-the-world hysteria is all way too short sighted.

What we really need to concentrate on are contingency plans for when the sun starts to burn out 5 billion years from now.

-Astro